EAGLE PASS, TEXAS: U.S. Border Patrol agents organize migrants who have recently arrived in the United States after crossing over from Mexico in December 2023. John Moore/Getty Images

Why Six Countries Account for Most Migrants at the U.S.-Mexico Border

Migrants and displaced people from across the world are arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border in droves. More than half come from six Latin American countries, where worsening violence, poverty, and other factors are pushing them to leave.

EAGLE PASS, TEXAS: U.S. Border Patrol agents organize migrants who have recently arrived in the United States after crossing over from Mexico in December 2023. John Moore/Getty Images

The dynamics and scale of migration in and throughout the Americas have changed since the COVID-19 pandemic. Millions of migrants and displaced people are arriving every year to the U.S.-Mexico border, hailing not just from Mexico and northern Central America, but also from countries further south and from across the globe.

EAGLE PASS: A late-year migration surge in 2023 resulted in long lines at the border as immigrants waited to be processed by U.S. authorities. John Moore/Getty Images

Migration on an Unprecedented Scale

EAGLE PASS: A late-year migration surge in 2023 resulted in long lines at the border as immigrants waited to be processed by U.S. authorities. John Moore/Getty Images

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) registered close to 2.5 million migrant encounters at the southern U.S. border in fiscal year 2023. Such high levels of migration are increasingly putting pressure on border infrastructure and personnel, contributing to a humanitarian crisis, and inflaming domestic political debate on the future of U.S. asylum, border, and immigration policy.

A U.S. Border Patrol agent speaks with immigrants at a transit center near the U.S.-Mexico border on December 19, 2023 in Eagle Pass, Texas.
EAGLE PASS: A U.S. Border Patrol agent speaks with immigrants who recently crossed the Rio Grande River into the United States. John Moore/Getty Images

So far, in 2024, encounter numbers have decreased overall, but they remain high for certain countries. In the first five months of the year, CBP agents encountered more than nine hundred thousand migrants and asylum seekers at the U.S.-Mexico border. The majority hailed from just six countries: Mexico, Guatemala, Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, and Colombia, in descending order.

EAGLE PASS: As many as twelve thousand migrants crossed the border per day in December 2023, overwhelming U.S. authorities. John Moore/Getty Images

EAGLE PASS: As many as twelve thousand migrants crossed the border per day in December 2023, overwhelming U.S. authorities. John Moore/Getty Images

The Joe Biden administration has responded by designing policies to mitigate “root causes” of migration and displacement, enacting temporary humanitarian protections for individuals from certain countries, while making it more difficult for migrants to apply for asylum in the United States. But push factors—including organized crime-fueled violence and extortion and a lack of economic opportunities—combined with the pull of a strong U.S. labor market, make it unlikely migration flows will decrease substantially in the near future.

When taking a closer look at the conditions driving people to leave these six countries, it’s clear why the challenge of managing large-scale migration and displacement is seemingly here to stay.

TILA, MEXICO: The remains of burnt-out vehicles litter the streets after armed gang violence forced many residents to evacuate. Manuel Orbegozo/Reuters

Mexico

TILA, MEXICO: The remains of burnt-out vehicles litter the streets after armed gang violence forced many residents to evacuate. Manuel Orbegozo/Reuters

Mexicans have migrated to the United States in large numbers for decades. Despite a decline in numbers during the 2010s, CBP encounters with Mexicans at the U.S. southern border are rising again. While Mexicans previously migrated mostly to seek out economic opportunities—and most of the migrants were young men traveling alone—recently, the share of Mexican families migrating has increased. Many are fleeing states in southern Mexico, such as Guerrero, Chiapas, and Oaxaca, that have been hit hard by intracommunal and criminal violence and extortion.

Mexico's army members guard people fleeing the violence generated by armed groups in recent days in Tila, Chiapas state, Mexico.
TILA: Mexican soldiers guard residents as they seek safety from gang violence. Isaac Guzman/AFP/Getty Images

A 2022 UN International Organization for Migration survey found that 90 percent of Mexican migrants left the country due to violence, extortion, or organized crime. The United States and Mexico have historically cooperated on countering organized crime, but during the six-year term of outgoing Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico’s federal government often took a hands-off approach to cartels and gangs, allowing them to expand their territorial presence. Meanwhile, bilateral security cooperation has faltered.

MAJOMUT, MEXICO: Indigenous Tzotzil women cry after being displaced from the town of Santa Martha due to violent conflict between armed groups. Jacob Garcia/Reuters
PETALCINGO, MEXICO: Many residents who were forced to flee their homes are staying in displacement camps set up by the government. Jacob Garcia/Reuters

Mexico could be positioned to revise its approach as President-Elect Claudia Sheinbaum takes office in October. If she develops a new and more effective strategy to curb organized crime and convinces governors of southern states to work with her, Mexico’s migration and displacement numbers could once again begin to decline. But if the south’s security crisis persists, migration from Mexico is expected to continue, if not grow.

EL AGUACATE, GUATEMALA: Maria Concepcion Rodriguez and her family survive on less than $2 per day, barely enough to purchase basic food, such as a packet of noodles. Pilar Olivares/Reuters

Guatemala

EL AGUACATE, GUATEMALA: Maria Concepcion Rodriguez and her family survive on less than $2 per day, barely enough to purchase basic food, such as a packet of noodles. Pilar Olivares/Reuters

Extortion by gangs, poverty, and the effects of worsening climate change on farmers are all driving displacement in Guatemala and fueling migration. Most Guatemalan migrants come from the departments of Guatemala, San Marcos, and Quiché. The department of Guatemala, which includes the capital, has the fourth-highest homicide rate in the country and is an extortion hot spot. San Marcos and Quiché face widespread poverty and struggle to attract commercial activity and investment.

Soldiers patrol during an anti-drug operation at the "El Gallito" neighbourhood in Guatemala City, on Februrary 6, 2024. "El Gallito" is considered one of the main drug distribution centers in the Guatemalan capital.
GUATEMALA CITY, GUATEMALA: Soldiers patrol the El Gallito neighborhood, considered a main distribution center for drugs. Orlando Estrada/AFP/Getty Images

Rising gang and cartel violence along Guatemala’s border with Mexico has also displaced locals. Meanwhile, climate change is taking a toll on subsistence farmers in a region known as the “dry corridor,” pushing many from this part of the country to head north.

LAS TUNAS, GUATEMALA: With many farmers relying solely on rainwater for irrigation, increasing temperatures and shifting rain patterns have decreased crop yields. Pilar Olivares/Reuters
LAKE ATESCATEMPA, GUATEMALA: The lake, which once supported fishing and tourism industries, has dried up due to persistent drought and high temperatures, underscoring the devastating effects of climate change. Marvin Recinos/AFP/Getty Images

The Biden administration has pledged $170 million in development assistance to Guatemala since President Bernardo Arévalo—an anticorruption reformer—took office in January. Arévalo recently rolled out a cash transfer program that provides assistance to one hundred thousand families in impoverished parts of the country to slow emigration. Arévalo has also launched a crackdown on extortion. If successful, migration and displacement from Guatemala could slow during his term, but they will not likely experience a major decline. Managing the consequences of climate change and decreasing the poverty rate will take years, if not decades.

CARACAS, VENEZUELA: The precarious housing of the Petare neighborhood, the largest slum in the country, is considered one of Venezuela’s most violent areas. Marvin Recinos/AFP/Getty Images

Venezuela

CARACAS, VENEZUELA: The precarious housing of the Petare neighborhood, the largest slum in the country, is considered one of Venezuela’s most violent areas. Marvin Recinos/AFP/Getty Images

Since 2014, nearly eight million Venezuelans have left their homes, fleeing an economic crisis and authoritarian repression under President Nicolás Maduro. Of all Venezuelan migrants surveyed in a 2022 poll by Centro de Investigaciones Populares, 72 percent said economic problems, including hyperinflation, poverty, and food insecurity, pushed them to migrate.

Children get water from a tank at the Petare neighborhood in Caracas.
CARACAS: Children gather water from a tank in Venezuela’s Petare neighborhood as the country faces a shortage of food, medicine, and other basic necessities. Matias Delacroix/AFP/Getty Images

Violence and abuse by security forces have also forced Venezuelans to flee. The country remains one of the most violent in the region, despite the homicide rate dropping last year.

In the first four months of 2024, tens of thousands of Venezuelans left the country, accounting for 64 percent of all migrants who have so far crossed Panama’s Darién Gap. The exodus of Venezuelans will likely accelerate if Maduro secures another six-term year in elections scheduled for July 28, which almost certainly won’t be free or fair.

HAVANA, CUBA: Cuba’s shortage of food, water, electricity, and medicine is exacerbating an already dire economic situation. Enrico Dagnino/Paris Match/Getty images

Cuba

HAVANA, CUBA: Cuba’s shortage of food, water, electricity, and medicine is exacerbating an already dire economic situation. Enrico Dagnino/Paris Match/Getty images

Cubans are also fleeing a broken economy and authoritarian repression. Last year, Cuba’s economy shrunk by 2 percent, leaving it as much as 10 percent smaller than in 2019, and in its worst state in more than three decades. The island’s inflation rate is one of the highest in the region and wages have stagnated, while food and fuel prices have shot up in recent years. Shortages of food and medicine have placed added pressure on Cubans to leave.

HAVANA: The government imposed a 500 percent hike in fuel prices in March 2024, part of a series of economic measures aimed at reducing the island’s massive budget deficit. Yamil Lage/AFP/Getty Images
HAVANA: Cuba’s worst economic crisis in decades has pushed many residents to ration food and take to the streets in the country’s largest antigovernment protests since 2021. Yamil Lage/AFP/Getty Images

Today, Cubans are opting to head to the southern U.S. border via overland routes because of slow processing times for U.S. humanitarian parole programs and the availability of flights to Nicaragua. Since the Nicaraguan government lifted visa requirements for Cubans in 2021, Cubans have taken as many as fifty flights per month to the Central American country to begin their journey north.

DURÁN, ECUADOR: A soldier stands watch as the military and police conduct a joint anti-gang operation. Santiago Armas/Reuters

Ecuador

DURÁN, ECUADOR: A soldier stands watch as the military and police conduct a joint anti-gang operation. Santiago Armas/Reuters

Since 2021, hundreds of thousands of Ecuadorians have fled a surge in drug- and gang-related violence and extortion. Last year, Ecuador had the highest homicide rate in Latin America, with 44.5 homicides per 100,000 people, after previously ranking among the region’s most peaceful countries. The ongoing security crisis has prompted President Daniel Noboa to declare a state of “internal armed conflict”, mobilize the military against gangs, and arrest more than sixteen thousand people since January.

Soldiers in an armoured vehicle patrol the city's historic centre following an outbreak of violence.
QUITO, ECUADOR: The military is being deployed against the country’s gangs, which the government has labeled as terrorist groups. Karen Toro/Reuters

But these policies have not pacified the country. While the national homicide rate has dropped slightly in the first five months of 2024, nine of Ecuador’s twenty-four provinces have seen murders increase compared to last year, and extortions and kidnappings are also on the rise, according to figures from the National Police. Corruption, which has enabled the rise of gangs, has also sapped Ecuadorians’ confidence in the state to protect them.

GUAYAQUIL, ECUADOR: Thousands of people have been arrested since President Noboa declared a state of emergency to combat surging gang violence. John Moore/Getty Images
ATACAMES, ECUADOR: Soldiers patrol the beach during Carnival celebrations in February 2024, as the government says the violent crime rate is dropping. John Moore/Getty Images

The United States has agreed to provide more than $100 million in logistical and material support to Ecuador’s security forces to fight gangs and cartels, but progress is likely to be slow if it happens at all. Ecuador has become a strategic transit point for cocaine in South America, and its heavily armed and well-financed gangs will not easily give up control.

JAMUNDÍ, COLOMBIA: A Colombian soldier stands guard as part of an increased military presence in the wake of an explosion that killed two police officers in June 2024. Joaquin Sarmiento/AFP/Getty Images

Colombia

JAMUNDÍ, COLOMBIA: A Colombian soldier stands guard as part of an increased military presence in the wake of an explosion that killed two police officers in June 2024. Joaquin Sarmiento/AFP/Getty Images

Persistent violence and insecurity stemming from the country’s ongoing internal armed conflict, combined with slow economic growth, are driving tens of thousands of Colombians to migrate and seek asylum in the United States. Colombians also cite the search for better economic opportunities in their decision to leave.

Belen, a migrant from Colombia, holds her five-year-old daughter Sofia as they stare towards a fire in the dry riverbed of the Rio Grande while searching for an entry point into the United States along the international boundary between Ciudad Juarez, Mexico and El Paso, Texas
CIUDAD JUÁREZ, MEXICO/EL PASO, TEXAS: Migrants spend the night on the riverbed of the Rio Grande as they search for an entry point into the United States. Adrees Latif/Reuters

Policies that make it easier for Colombians to travel north may also be contributing to the consistently high numbers. Unlike other nationalities discussed here, Colombians can travel to Mexico visa-free. If they have the money to fly, they can skip the dangerous Darién Gap crossing between Colombia and Panama (although close to twenty thousand Colombians [PDF] still took that route in 2023, according to data from the Panamanian government).

LUKEVILLE, ARIZONA: U.S. border authorities closed the town’s border crossing in response to a December 2023 surge in the number of immigrants from Mexico. John Moore/Getty Images

The Need for a Regional Strategy

LUKEVILLE, ARIZONA: U.S. border authorities closed the town’s border crossing in response to a December 2023 surge in the number of immigrants from Mexico. John Moore/Getty Images

The Biden administration has responded to this unprecedented displacement in a number of ways. It has expanded the availability of legal migration pathways, establishing a humanitarian parole program for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans that allows a combined thirty thousand individuals from these four countries to enter the United States each month. The program reduced CBP migrant encounters with Cubans and Nicaraguans by 88 percent and 77 percent, respectively, in 2023.

Hundreds of asylum seekers who used a CBP phone app to make an appointment, are led to their interviews with U.S. customs agents at the San Ysidro Border Crossing.
TIJUANA, MEXICO: Asylum seekers arrive for their interviews with U.S. customs agents after making an appointment via the new CBP One app, in April 2024. Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times/Getty Images

The administration has also tightened asylum processes. It raised the standards for “credible fear” interviews (used to gauge whether asylum seekers have a reasonable chance of winning their cases) and enacted a rule that disqualifies broad categories of asylum seekers. Additionally, in June, Biden signed an executive order that suspends migrant entries at the U.S.-Mexico border once the daily number of illegal crossings exceeds a certain threshold. But, like past deterrence-based measures, these policies are unlikely to dramatically slow the pace of new arrivals at the border.

U.S. Border Patrol agents assist Venezuelan immigrant Argeiris Ramos, 22, to pass through razor wire at the U.S.-Mexico border on September 29, 2023 in Eagle Pass, Texas.
EAGLE PASS: U.S. Border Patrol agents meet a group of Venezuelan asylum seekers, who had traveled overland for weeks to reach the southern U.S. border, in September 2023. John Moore/Getty Images

A more promising approach is for the United States to work with its Latin American partners to manage migration flows and mitigate the forces driving displacement. In 2022, the U.S. government and twenty others from across the Western hemisphere signed the Los Angeles Declaration, a first-of-its-kind framework to jointly address the root causes of regional migration, expand available legal pathways, and strengthen border enforcement. The Biden administration also set up new screening centers, known as safe mobility offices, in Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Guatemala that allow migrants to apply for asylum from these countries.

LEHIGH ACRES, FLORIDA: Five years after fleeing from Venezuela to Colombia, Alexis Llanos and his family have built a life in the United States. Rebecca Blackwell/AP Photo
GUATEMALA CITY: Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discuss efforts to address growing regional migration. Johan Ordonez/AFP/Getty Images

The United States can and should do more to support Latin American countries that are absorbing most of the region’s displaced people and migrants. The UN refugee agency estimates that more than twenty-two million people were in transit throughout the hemisphere in 2023; 80 percent of those migrants and displaced people remain within the region. Latin American countries have, in most cases, handled the influx remarkably well, providing migrants access to temporary visas, basic services, and work permits. But they have limited capacity to keep absorbing newcomers.

Migrants take part in a caravan towards the border with the United States in Tapachula, Chiapas State, Mexico.
TAPACHULA, MEXICO: Thousands of migrants head toward the southern U.S. border in December 2023, after the Mexican government announced it would step up efforts to curb irregular migration flows. STR/AFP/Getty Images

The United States should work with regional allies, development finance institutions, the private sector, and nonprofits to mobilize the financial resources needed to bolster host communities and countries. Washington and its partners should also seek to deepen security partnerships and train police, prosecutors, and judges to fight extortion. Migration and displacement on an unprecedented scale are testing the governments of the Americas. But managed well, migration could translate into opportunity, boosting labor markets and helping countries meet looming demographic challenges.

Recommended Resources

This photo essay explores the treacherous journey migrants take through Panama’s Darién Gap.

This Backgrounder dives into migration from Central America’s Northern Triangle.

These Backgrounders explain the U.S. asylum and refugee systems.

This CFR Infoguide examines the global migrant crisis and the strains it places on the international refugee system.

At this CFR event, the International Rescue Committee’s David Miliband and the White House’s John Podesta discuss the relationship between climate vulnerability and conflict zones.

Diana Roy edited this article.